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Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is calling for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which aligns with Turkey's objective of destroying the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and constitutes an implicit call by HTS to disarm the SDF. A top HTS military commander called for a unified Syrian state, which implies that the SDF could not exist as an autonomous organization and that all Kurdish communities would be under the control of Damascus. This demand is consistent with HTS’s broader objective in Syria, which is likely to solidify its control over Syrian territory. Controlling all of Syria in a unitary system would require the dismantling of the SDF because the SDF’s leaders appear to desire a federal region. The SDF is currently facing a Turkish-led or Turkish-backed assault on Kobani and other Kurdish-held territory in northeastern Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan named the “eliminat[ion]” of the SDF as a Turkish strategic objective on December 13. Increased Turkish force buildup on the Turkish-Syria border, the dismantling of the Kobani-Turkey border wall, and increased drone attacks in the Manbij countryside suggest that Turkey intends to pursue this assault to “eliminate” the SDF in the coming days and that Turkey could launch this assault with Turkish forces.
HTS is deepening its cooperation with Turkey and Turkish-backed groups to solidify its control over Syrian territory. HTS, while not a Turkish proxy or beholden to Turkey, receives significant support from Turkey. Turkey was almost certainly aware of and approved of HTS’s offensive that toppled Assad. The HTS-led interim government has publicly expressed solidarity with the Kurdish people since coming to power, but it has not yet provided concrete assurances or a path toward any sort of autonomous authority that the SDF desires. HTS leader Ahmad al Shara has met and possibly forged alliances with Turkish-aligned armed factions to negotiate the absorption of these factions into the new Syrian government's armed services. Shara has met with several SNA elements that have previously fought against the Kurds—including the Suleiman Shah Brigades, which are sanctioned for committing serious human rights abuses against Kurdish populations during the Turkish-backed operation to seize Afrin, northwestern Syria, in 2019. Shara also indicated interest in a direct relationship with Turkey, telling an Islamist Turkish daily newspaper on December 18 that Syria would pursue “strategic relations” with Turkey moving forward and meeting with Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin on December 12. HTS is likely eager to formalize its relationship with Turkey in HTS’s capacity as the de facto authority of Syria because it needs formal relationships with influential states at a time when it is still designated as a terrorist organization by the US, EU, and UN.
Key Takeaways:
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HTS Consolidation: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is calling for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which aligns with Turkey's objective of destroying the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and constitutes an implicit call by HTS to disarm the SDF. HTS is deepening its cooperation with Turkey and Turkish-backed groups to solidify its control over Syrian territory. Incorporating SDF-held territory into the new Syrian government would require the SDF to disarm and disband their security forces. Elements of these forces would be reintegrated into the Syrian army alongside other militia groups, some of which have worked to kill and displace Kurdish communities.
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SDF-Syrian National Army Ceasefire: The US-backed SDF and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) ceasefire in northeastern Syria appears to have failed.
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Israel in Syria: Israeli forces continued to operate in villages in Quneitra and Daraa provinces since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on December 17.
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Russia Withdrawals from Syria: Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 18 showed a cargo plane on the tarmac of Russia’s helicopter base at Qamishli, northeastern Syria, suggesting that the Russian withdrawal there is still underway and Russian forces remain there as of December 18.
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West Bank: The Palestinian Authority (PA) is likely exploiting the current weakness of major Palestinian militia groups to reduce their strongholds in the northern West Bank.
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