Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Johanna Moore, Karolina Hird, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

Click here to view ISW–CTP's Gaza Control-of-Terrain map and here for our interactive control-of-terrain map of Syria.

Click here to view ISW's complete portfolio of interactive maps.

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire in northeastern Syria “to the end of the week.” The ceasefire was originally meant to last from December 12 to 16. The SNA and Turkey deployed artillery and fighters to the front lines around Kobani on December 17 before the ceasefire extension  SDF elements under the Manbij Military Council engaged the SNA on Tishreen Dam for several hours on December 17, but fighting was mostly contained to the area

The SNA and Turkey may launch an offensive to capture Kobani and other SDF-held territory after the ceasefire expires. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Turkish military buildup near Kobani includes special operations forces and resembles preparations ahead of previous Turkish incursions into northern Syria. Local sources reported on December 16 that Turkey has dismantled the border wall near Kobani, further indicating that Turkish forces are preparing for offensive operations in the area. These possible preparations come shortly after the Turkish foreign affairs minister said on December 13 that a Turkish strategic objective is to “eliminate” the SDF.

The SDF wants to negotiate a permanent ceasefire under which it would establish “a demilitarized zone in Kobani” under US supervision. The SDF General Command released a statement accusing Turkey of wanting to seize and annex all Syrian territory. The possibility of an SNA-Turkish offensive comes as SDF is facing widespread defections from its ranks. The SDF called for Arab and Kurdish youth to ”join the ranks of the SDF” in a statement and has reportedly called up SDF fighters on break to help manage these defections.

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: The US-backed SDF and Turkish-backed SNA agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire in northeastern Syria “to the end of the week.” Turkey and the SNA appear to be preparing to launch an offensive to capture SDF-held Syrian territory after the ceasefire expires.

• Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara announced that the HTS-led interim Syrian government will dissolve all former opposition forces and integrate them under the new Defense Ministry. This announcement is part of Shara’s effort to rebuild the Syrian security sector.

• Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara suggested that elections and the drafting of a new Syrian constitution are unlikely to occur in the near term. It is unclear therefore what will proceed after the term of the interim Syrian government expires in March 2025.

• Russia: Neither Russia nor the HTS-led interim Syrian government appear sure of the future of Russian basing in Syria. Syrian reporting and visual evidence continue to suggest that Russian forces are preparing draw down significantly or even fully from Syria, however.

• Israel: Israel and Saudi Arabia may normalize relations during the second phase of a ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, according to Israeli media. This report comes amid indications that Hamas has softened its maximalist position in talks with Israel. 

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

Website | Jobs & Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.